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          <h1 id="post-title">The Problem with Plans</h1>

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<p><strong>Entry Question</strong>: What’s wrong with making plans for the future?</p>
<hr />
<h1 id="handling-complexity-and-making-decisions">Handling Complexity and making decisions</h1>
<h2 id="bureaucracy-and-the-problem-with-plans">Bureaucracy and the Problem with Plans</h2>
<p>For a plan to be as powerful as your mind’s expert analysis, the plan would have to be just as complex as the actual algorithms your mind uses.</p>
<p>You need a <em>ton</em> of flexibility and power to navigate the world successfully, especially at the highest levels of human performance.</p>
<p>No static plan is going to cut it.</p>
<p>(You’d think I would have learnt this by now)</p>
<p><strong>Rational Injunction</strong>: Any time you find yourself making detailed, sensible plans for some activity, you are screwed.</p>
<p>The plans will be thrown away in a matter of days. All the time spent planning will be for naught.</p>
<p>The planning thing is all a Creative Excuse to avoid facing the Real Scary Problem.</p>
<p>There are no exceptions. You have been warned. Learn this lesson now. Rip off the band-aid.</p>
<p>(This is a hypothesis to be tested for other people. For me, I think this is a fact. All the evidence in my life supports this.)</p>
<p>In other words, Planning = Mental Masturbation.</p>
<h2 id="how-to-really-get-things-done">How to really Get Things Done</h2>
<p><strong>Hypothesis</strong>: The Best Way (perhaps the Only Way) to handle all the risks and achieve the Impact you care about is to transform your Mind into one that can do it.</p>
<p>No plan is going to cut it.</p>
<p>In other words, train your mind and load it up in such a way that, at each step, in response to each new situation, it <em>knows what to do</em>.</p>
<p>Get to the point where you don’t need a plan to tell you what you should do next. You may use a calculator or write an essay to clarify your idea, but you must know what to do.</p>
<p>You must have the Fingertip Feel. There is no way (I know of) to fake this.</p>
<p>The alternative would be to build a general-purpose Artificial Intelligence (AGI) that helps you out by telling you what to do. Not happening anytime soon.</p>
<p>You should be able to come to good / correct solutions without needing to look it up in the manual. This is why people who say of some technical subject, “I don’t need to learn this now. I can always look it up when I need it” are talking out of their ass. The information needs to be inside your head and available at your finger tips.</p>
<p>Why? Because the <em>only tool</em> in the universe capable of handling such complex information is… the human mind. Everything else explodes in the face of such generality. It’s no use having the information out there somewhere. It has to be in a format that is readable and executable by your mind - aka inside your head.</p>
<h2 id="a-note-about-productivity-tools">A Note about Productivity Tools</h2>
<p><strong>Corollary</strong>: People who <em>rely</em> on “productivity tools” are doomed.</p>
<p>That’s why they never quite end up ruling the roost.</p>
<p>I know a lot of highly talented people from college. They’re all doing some exciting work out there. <em>None</em> of them depended on any sort of high-flying “productivity tools” for their success. I was always perplexed by the seeming “chaos” in their planning style.</p>
<p>One guy used to keep a text file on his computer with a bunch of things to remind himself to do. And this was only during exam week. The rest of the time, it was like these people were trapeze artists without any safety net. If you are familiar with modern productivity tools (To-Do List apps, calendar apps, whatnot apps), you will be shocked. How in hell can they manage their life?! I used to go around recommending Org-mode to people to help manage various aspects of their life. Nobody listened to me. They were right. I was wrong. You already have the most important productivity tool you need… right between your ears.</p>
<p>You must be the master of your tools, not vice versa. They must serve you. The ultimate decision must come from you and your judgment.</p>
<blockquote>
<p><strong>Productivity Tool Nerd</strong>: Hey! I <em>am</em> the master of my tools. They serve me.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Really? Can you skip a day of your planning without feeling guilty? Can you throw off your onerous scheduling duties and just go free-style for a week? Or will that screw up your beautifully kept-up records? Being in chains is only one way of being a slave.</p>
<hr />
<p>This makes perfecting your judgement and de-biasing yourself a 100x more important now. There is no other recourse. You have to rely on your own brain.</p>
<h1 id="dealing-with-corner-cases">Dealing with Corner Cases</h1>
<h2 id="raise-your-mind">Raise your Mind</h2>
<p>To solve a problem, you have to Raise your Mind to the level of the problem.</p>
<p>Alternative hypothesis: The plan should provide for all the complex corner cases, etc.</p>
<p>Not happening. No external tool is that powerful.</p>
<p>Alternative hypothesis: The plan takes care of the normal case, you take care of the corner cases.</p>
<p>Well, the catch is that the game is all about the corner cases, the evil instances of the problem. In those cases, if you don’t truly understand the problem domain to its core, you are screwed.</p>
<p>That is what we call a Black Swan Blow-up. All it takes is one unplanned event with high negative Impact to destroy all the benefits you had accumulated over a long time.</p>
<p>And, I think, the only way to come to understand the domain really well is to tackle the normal cases till it becomes second nature. You can’t expect to be relaxing with your feet up all the time and suddenly jump into action the moment something goes drastically wrong. You would be overwhelmed.</p>
<p>There are no shortcuts, no cheating. This is the Only Way. You have to live by your own strength. Else, the slightest contingency will throw you way off course.</p>
<h1 id="living-by-your-own-strength---updating-priorities-on-the-fly">Living by your own Strength - Updating Priorities on the Fly</h1>
<p><em>You</em> have to figure out and update your priorities on the fly. No system is ever gonna do that for you (before AGI is cracked). No spreadsheet or productivity system or whatever is EVER going to work out. Don’t hold your breath.</p>
<p>Hallmark of a Powerful Mind/Tool: It can deal with complex and numerous situations on the fly.</p>
<p>So, Raise your Mind to the level of the problem and deal with situations and decisions on the fly.</p>
<p>You’re only ever gonna go by your instincts. No matter what the calculations say, it’s <em>your</em> decision at the end, just like with a royal court or advisory committee. Better shape your thoughts and motivations so that they’re right for the job.</p>
<p><strong>Hypothesis</strong>: The most readily available source of information and feedback is your own mind.</p>
<p>It may not be super-precise or accurate, but it’s there and it’s pretty damn good when <em>you’re</em> pretty damn good.</p>
<p>Stop always waiting for external stats and progress reports to give you the information you want. Your mind contains powerful <a href>evidence</a>. Don’t ignore it. Pay close attention to your own ideas (and then write essays to bring them out fully and back them up with verified evidence).</p>
<p>You have to live by the strength of your mind. When you try to lean on plans or productivity tools, you’re trying to live on borrowed strength.</p>
<p>That’s what I was doing the past month, trying to live on the strength of my plans. I didn’t want to do the work myself. I didn’t want to have to <em>think</em>! I just wanted to sit there and be taken around by somebody else. Like a water slide, I just wanted to position myself at the start of the slide and be taken down to the end by the plan. I didn’t want to do lots of nasty additional course corrections and be on alert all the time for mistakes and miscalculations. I wanted to be the passenger, not the captain of the ship. No wonder I crashed into an iceberg.</p>
<p>Live by your Instincts. You can do whatever your instincts tell you to do, on the condition that you calibrate your instincts with what actually needs to be done.</p>
<h1 id="positive-black-swans">Positive Black Swans</h1>
<h2 id="levelling-up">Levelling Up</h2>
<p>If you’re truly gonna become an Awesomely Powerful Super-Saiyan Rationalist, you’re gonna have to deal with tons of unexpected rapid growths and unseen opportunities (positive Black Swans).</p>
<p>Trying to plan for all of that with your current pitiful mind is gonna stifle you and make the rapid jumps impossible. You’re guaranteed to make a plan that is too rigid to allow for such speculative side-efforts and explorations.</p>
<h1 id="competitive-free-market-for-motivation">Competitive Free Market for Motivation</h1>
<p>If you follow your instincts at each moment, you will be doing the thing with <em>highest motivation</em> at each point.</p>
<p>Won’t you also do that while executing a Plan? Absolutely Not!</p>
<p>This is the Competitive Free Market for Motivation.</p>
<p>Planned Actions are like Planned Economies - going further and further down the path of inefficiency (as far as Motivation is concerned).</p>
<h1 id="the-drudgery-of-plans">The Drudgery of Plans</h1>
<p>When you follow a Plan, you end up doing things that may not <em>excite</em> you. You’re forcing yourself to do the actions mentioned by the plan. You pay for it by losing sight of the information that markets give you. You can no longer see the prices (motivation levels). You are flying blind. No information.</p>
<p>Not only do you have a high chance of procrastinating on the plan (cos of low motivation), you lose out on other more exciting opportunities that you didn’t notice because you lost sight of the motivation levels.</p>
<h1 id="planning-and-risks">Planning and Risks</h1>
<h2 id="pg-on-planning-and-risk">PG on Planning and Risk</h2>
<blockquote>
<p>Planning is a necessary evil. It is a response to risk: the more dangerous an undertaking, the more important it is to plan ahead. Powerful tools decrease risk, and so decrease the need for planning. The design of your program can then benefit from what is probably the most useful source of information available: the experience of implementing it.</p>
<p>– Paul Graham, <a href="http://ep.yimg.com/ty/cdn/paulgraham/acl1.txt">Introduction</a> of ANSI Common Lisp</p>
</blockquote>
<h2 id="what-is-the-risk">What is the Risk?</h2>
<h1 id="learning-from-the-experience-of-implementing-an-idea">Learning from the Experience of Implementing an Idea</h1>
<h1 id="the-trade-off-instincts-vs-plans">The Trade-off: Instincts vs Plans</h1>
<h2 id="shape-your-instincts-not-your-plans">Shape your Instincts, not your Plans</h2>
<p>Trusting your Instincts means that you will be flexible.</p>
<p>You will be able to handle the risks as you go ahead and recover from mistakes you make. Especially in areas of high uncertainty, the need of the hour is flexibility. Your static plans can’t cover all of the cases. You have to keep your mind agile enough to deal with them.</p>
<p>As long as you’re producing Value and Becoming Stronger, don’t nitpick with your mind’s decisions.</p>
<blockquote>
<p>How to pain the perfect painting? Simple, make yourself perfect and then just paint naturally.</p>
<p><a href>Quote</a> in a Paul Graham essay</p>
</blockquote>
<p>How do we improve our instincts? How do we calibrate them so that we end up doing the right thing?</p>
<p>I don’t know this for sure. I need to understand this better. But for now, it seems a good bet to keep what needs to be done crystal clear in your mind. In fact, keep all important ideas crystal clear in your mind.</p>
<p>As Daniel Coyle says, maintain the right <em><a href>windshield</a></em> and you will make the best decisions you can.</p>
<p><strong>Open Question</strong>: How to measure and improve your Instincts?</p>
<h2 id="rationality-thought-smell">Rationality Thought Smell</h2>
<p>Thought Smells are glaring signals that you are making a mistake somewhere, similar to when you get a rotten smell from your food.</p>
<p><strong>Rationality Thought Smell</strong>: Planning</p>
<p>I think this is especially true for challenging tasks like programming, writing, etc. where you have the powerful tools and interactive environments you need. If you try to plan your way through, you’re gonna miss out on the crucial information you will get in the process of implementing something.</p>
<p><strong>Rationality Thought Smell</strong>: Book-keeping / Progress Report / other bullshit bureaucracy</p>
<p>There is something perversely attractive about compiling statistics everyday or maintaining some kind of system that keeps track of your “progress”. Well, most of the time, these measurements don’t matter at all. Nothing depends on them. And they don’t even give you any added motivation. Only headache and stress.</p>
<p>More importantly, they are signs that you are sticking to a rigid plan. Cos, if your plan were shifting rapidly, as would happen in any high-power field (programming, writing, etc.), your measurements would change too. But they aren’t. You’re making the same measurements everyday.</p>
<p>Odds are on that you’re just giving yourself the illusion of progress rather than actual progress. Getting actual progress usually takes way more work than you’re currently doing. Much easier to concoct “progress measures” that will tell you what you want to hear.</p>
<h2 id="what-are-plans-good-for">What are Plans good for?</h2>
<h1 id="possible-measurement">Possible Measurement</h1>
<p>If it’s true that, in the end, we always go with what our instincts say (regardless of arguments given by others, etc.), then the extent of your Rationality is defined by the extent of your Instincts.</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Instincts -&gt; Actions.</p>
</blockquote>
<blockquote>
<p>Actions -&gt; Level of Rationality</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Disregarding the influence of external factors, we now have a Measurement for your Level of Rationality.</p>
<ul>
<li><p>Figure out how Instincts relate to your Actions.</p></li>
<li><p>Figure out how your Level of Rationality (i.e., the Impact you get) is calculated from your Actions.</p></li>
<li><p>Figure out how to measure your current Instincts.</p></li>
</ul>
<p>That’s it.</p>
<p>(Well, that’s a lot of “it”, but theoretically, yes, that is it.)</p>
<p>Remember, you’re not gonna act based on plans or anything. You’re gonna act based on your instincts.</p>
<h1 id="notes">Notes</h1>
<ul>
<li><p>Am I being technical about “Raise your Mind and Trust your Instincts”?</p>
<p>What does it forbid?</p></li>
<li><p>Alternative title: The Perils of Planning</p></li>
</ul>
<h1 id="summary">Summary</h1>
<ul>
<li><p>Maybe group it as: Costs and Benefits of Planning vs Following your Instincts</p></li>
<li><p>Don’t go overboard on bashing plans. Don’t rehearse your arguments. Get to a technical understanding of how good planning is for which purposes, and ditto for Instincts.</p>
<p>What are the weaknesses of following your Instincts? I don’t see you talk about that anywhere.</p>
<p>Will this work only for people who are very smart and self-aware or will this also work for normal people?</p>
<p>Maybe frame the tradeoff in terms of Risk and Reward and Flexibility and Black Swans.</p></li>
</ul>
<hr />
<h1 id="overview">Overview</h1>
<ul>
<li><p>What stops us from getting things done?</p>
<p>Lack of Motivation - we procrastinate on the tasks.</p>
<p>Incorrect actions - we do things that don’t get us the Impact we want. We don’t know <em>how</em> we should achieve our goals.</p>
<p>Lack of clarity about our goals - We don’t even <em>know</em> what we really want. We think getting X, Y, and Z is what will maximize our happiness / utility / whatever we care about, but it may not be. This includes being misguided by our feelings in the moment and losing sight of important things in the future.</p></li>
<li><p>Why do we think we need plans?</p>
<p>Why would we come up with plans to fight the above problems?</p></li>
<li><p>What are the risks? (If “planning” is indeed a response to risk.)</p>
<p>What could go wrong, badly wrong?</p>
<p>Aren’t human instincts screwed up? Isn’t that what the field of Heuristics and Biases telling us for the past few decades?</p>
<p>Don’t you need to plan in order to counter those biases?</p></li>
<li><p>What is a “plan”? Taboo it.</p></li>
<li><p>Planning - what are the requirements?</p>
<p>You do actually have to reach your goals, you know.</p>
<p>Most important argument in favour of goal-directed plans - People face tradeoffs. There are real costs of failing or getting distracted along the way. You cannot brush this requirement aside.</p>
<p>How does Planning meet the requirements? What else can we do to meet the requirements (apart from Planning)?</p>
<p>When you reach a step of the plan, isn’t it a case of your past instinct vs your current instinct? Why should your past instinct get to dictate things?</p>
<p>Is it about sitting quietly and avoiding your biases? You think about it at length and avoid getting caught up in the heat of the moment and thus can make better judgments.</p>
<p>In that case, isn’t a plan superior to your instincts in the moment?</p>
<p>How much information do you have in each case, though? Instincts are flawed, true, but they are based on more information than your plan.</p>
<p>When can plans be better?</p></li>
<li><p>Benefits of Plans (or rather, Goal-Setting)</p>
<p>Goal-Setting can make things incredibly more concrete. You start thinking about it more clearly. It can help remove the confusion in your head.</p>
<p>You’re forced to deal with the specifics. What? When? How much? What do you need to do for that now? What could go wrong?</p>
<p>Example: Me just answering the Financial Planning question: “What are your financial goals?”</p></li>
</ul>
<h2 id="criteria">Criteria</h2>
<ul>
<li><p>Handling the Complexity</p></li>
<li><p>Corner Cases</p></li>
<li><p>Positive Black Swans</p></li>
<li><p>Updating Priorities on the Fly</p>
<p>Plans are not only unhelpful, they damage your chances of handling new priorities correctly.</p></li>
<li><p>Areas where you don’t care about the skill or corner cases</p>
<p>Maybe plans are good for that. You don’t want your mind to be cluttered.</p></li>
<li><p>Competitive Free Market of Motivation</p>
<p>With plans, you’ll most probably grind to a halt as you run out of motivation. To defeat that, you have to be really good at designing plans. (Game designers do it all the time.)</p>
<p>But that is <strong>really</strong> difficult. You have to predict the level of challenge the next action will provide and the level of motivation you will have for it each step along the way. This, on top of making sure that the plan gets you to your goal. Not a piece of cake.</p></li>
<li><p>What is the Risk?</p>
<p>What is it that we are planning for?</p>
<p>(Risk in programming is time taken to recover from some mistake. Could be more costly in other areas of life.)</p>
<p>How are you handling that Risk when going by your Instincts?</p>
<p>You need Powerful Tools and Interactive Environments.</p></li>
<li><p>Learning from the Experience of Implementing an Idea</p>
<p>Essential Complexity</p>
<p>Major! You don’t even <em>know</em> your idea until you’ve implemented it.</p></li>
<li><p>Actions</p>
<p>Raise your Mind and …</p>
<p>Keep up with the Free Market of Motivation</p>
<p>Learn from the Experience of Implementation =&gt; Rapid Prototyping (I think this is within one particular project. Living by your Instincts is this idea applied across projects.)</p></li>
</ul>
<h2 id="ideas-in-the-essay">Ideas in the essay</h2>
<ul>
<li><p>Plans would need to be as complex as your mental algorithms</p></li>
<li><p>Screwed if you’re planning</p></li>
<li><p>Only way? Transform your Mind. Why? Cos it’s the only tool capable of handling such complexity.</p></li>
<li><p>Productivity tools are over-rated. Don’t rely on them. Rely on your mind.</p></li>
<li><p>Plans are susceptible to Black Swan Blow-ups - unplanned negative corner cases.</p></li>
<li><p>Only way - handle it yourself. Only way to gain the skill for that - practice on the normal cases.</p></li>
<li><p>You cannot plan for positive Black Swans. But, you’re gonna need to level-up several times on your path. Rigid planning will make it near-impossible to take advantage of those Black Swan opportunities.</p>
<p>Loose planning too might not be good cos you need to gain the skill needed to handle corner cases.</p></li>
<li><p>Maybe planning is only good for areas where you don’t really care too much about the skill or worry too much about Black Swan events??</p></li>
<li><p>You will always have to go by your instincts, especially at key moments, no matter what the calculations, plans, etc. say.</p>
<p>No plan can update your priorities based on all the information and opportunities you come across.</p>
<p>So, stop waiting for some plan to tell you what to do. You have to figure it out for yourself.</p></li>
<li><p>Possible measurement for Rationality based on Instincts</p></li>
<li><p>Shape your Instincts, not your Plans. This way you will make more of the right decisions.</p>
<p>You can never get as much mileage out of plans as you can out of your instincts (too complex, plans not flexible enough, black swan blow-ups and opportunities).</p></li>
<li><p>Planning and book-keeping is a sign that you’re sticking to a rigid plan (and losing out on the benefits of following your instincts)</p></li>
<li><p>Planning fails to keep up with the Competitive Free Market of Motivation.</p>
<p>You don’t get to see or do the other exciting things that might take you way ahead on the path.</p>
<p>You are forced to do the things that your plan recommends. If not, then why have the plan? The plan exists to constrain your actions.</p>
<p>Maybe you could have a plan that merely recommends actions, but doesn’t constrain you to follow them. Then, it’s not a plan, merely an advisor. Anyway, my beef here is with things that force you to do some stuff and not to do others.</p>
<p>Weight-loss plan: eat this, don’t eat that. Do this activity, don’t do that.</p>
<p>Study plan: study for these many hours, don’t follow these distractions, revise.</p></li>
<li><p>Major problem with Plans: You don’t get to benefit from the most useful source of information available: the experience of implementing your design.</p></li>
</ul>

<div class="info">Created: November 18, 2014</div>
<div class="info">Last modified: June 13, 2015</div>
<div class="info">Status: finished</div>
<div class="info"><b>Tags</b>: plan, risk, hacker spirit</div>

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